Roger McNamee, cofounder of Elevation Partners recently gave a talk in which he offered some hypotheses about the present and future of information technology.
Although the entire video is well worth watching, four of his hypotheses are relevant to scientific software and the companies that create and buy it:
- The Decline and Fall of Windows Unlocks Revenue. Windows no longer provides measurable ROI to enterprises, who will eventually reallocate tech spending.
- HTML5 is Game Changer for Publishers. First major upgrade in a decade to infrastructure of the web will be disruptive, enabling monetizable differentiation of content.
- Tablets are Hugely Disruptive. Apples's iPad will be even more disruptive than the iPhone.
- "Next" Web architecture = Cloud + Lots of Screens. Proliferation of Smartphones + Tablets will accelerate need for an value of cloud services.
If McNamee is correct, there are big changes ahead in the ways large organizations allocate their IT budgets. Small, nimble technology companies will be presented with a rare chance, if prepared. Larger players will face significant problems adapting to the new normal.